scenario to update
Welcome, Recession Detective!
Can you predict recessions better than AI? You'll analyze 12 mystery scenarios from U.S. history and decide which ones led to recessions. But first, let's learn about the tools at your disposal.
What You'll Do:
- Learn about 8 leading economic indicators
- Examine economic conditions (GDP, unemployment) for 12 mystery periods
- Build your own weighted indicator index
- Predict which scenarios preceded recessions
- Compare your accuracy against AI
Your Toolkit: Leading Economic Indicators
Leading indicators are statistics that change before the overall economy changes. Click each indicator below to see how it behaved before a real recession - then reveal what happened after! All values are shown as Z-scores (standard deviations from average).
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Indicator (Z-Score)
Unemployment Rate (%)
GDP Growth (YoY %)
This is what the data looked like leading up to T-0 (your decision point). Would you predict a recession?
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Step 1: Examine the Economy
Here are 12 mystery periods from U.S. history (1979-2022). Each shows 24 months of data ending at "T-0" (your decision point). Click any scenario to see detailed charts.
Scenario A - Economic Conditions
Unemployment Rate (%)
GDP Growth (YoY %)
Step 2: Build Your Leading Indicator
Assign weights to each indicator. Select a scenario to see how your index compares to GDP and unemployment.
Weights (sum to 100%)
0%Select Scenario to View
Scenario A
Your Weighted Index
Unemployment (%)
GDP Growth (%)
Click scenarios on the left to compare
Weights must sum to 100%
Step 3: Lock In Your Predictions
Did a recession start within 3-6 months of T-0? Click a scenario to view its data, then make your prediction.
Scenario A
Your Weighted Index
Unemployment (%)
GDP Growth (%)
Predict all 12 scenarios
Step 4: Compare with AI
Copy this prompt and paste it into ChatGPT, Claude, or another AI. Then compare predictions!
AI Prompt
Your Predictions
AI Predictions
Next: TA Reveal!
Submit your predictions via Google Form (TA will share link). During discussion, your TA will reveal actual outcomes and compare accuracy!
Step 5: Apply to the Current Economy
You just learned to read recession signals from historical data. Now apply your indicator to today's economy. Live data is pulled from the FRED API (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
Current U.S. Economic Snapshot
Loading…Last 5 Years of Data
These are the same indicators you used to analyze historical scenarios — now shown for today's economy. Your weighted index is computed from whichever of these indicators you assigned weight to.
Your Weighted Index (set weights in Step 2)
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI Inflation — YoY (%)
10Y–2Y Yield Spread (%) — shaded = inverted
Building Permits — YoY (%)
Durable Goods Orders — YoY (%)
Transportation Equipment Orders — YoY (%)
Your Weighted Index — Applied to Today
Using the weights you set in Step 2. Live Z-scores are estimated vs. 1985–2019 historical averages. Indicators without live data (ISM, PMI, CLI, Consumer Confidence) are treated as neutral (0).